The Weekly Report

The Independence Party this week:  The “crazy” and the credible

It’s been a long time since the Independence Party (IP) dominated a week’s worth of interesting political news. But dominate the IP did, with two prominent Republicans, Tom Horner and Joe Repya, filing to run for governor as IP candidates. They join the three IP candidates already in the race: author Rob Hahn and frequent candidates John Uldrich and Rahn Workcuff.
Repya’s announcement came as a huge surprise to us and somewhat of a mystery. How will “Mr. Republican” Repya run as an Independent? Check out his campaign website and you’ll find pictures of “Support our Troops” rallies with Repya, his wife, Debra Repya, and Laura and George Bush. Repya sports a solid GOP resume, including this notation: “Prior to returning to active duty, Joe Repya was a veterans and military advisor to Norm Coleman during the 2002 Senate campaign and a veterans spokesman for the 2002 and 2006 Governor’s campaign for Tim Pawlenty.”
We couldn’t think of a better person to opine on Repya’s candidacy than Sue Jeffers, who was one of the key people behind Repya’s race to become GOP party chair last June (he was soundly defeated by Tony Sutton). Jeffers described Repya’s candidacy in one word. “Crazy,” she said, and further, “He thinks he’s going to attract a lots of Republicans and that’s not going to happen.”

According to Jeffers, Repya’s been talking about running for months, and telling people that the biggest political mistake he ever made was not challenging Norm Coleman for the endorsement in the 2008 Senate contest. Huh?

On to the credible.

Tom Horner‘s also been exploring a run for governor, particularly on Facebook, in the last six weeks or so. He’s wise to be very clear about the fact that he considers his candidacy “exploratory.” As Horner well knows — as anyone who has run for office knows — it’s one thing for people encouraging him to run say, “Great, Tom, I’m all behind you.” But it’s quite another thing for people to say, “Great, Tom, I’m all behind you, and here’s my check.”

Let us be the first to predict Horner will raise the necessary money. [Horner told the St. Paul Pioneer Press' Bill Salisbury that he expects to raise and spend about $2.5 million.] And while we’re at it, we also predict that Horner will be the IP candidate on the ballot in November. It will be fun to see whether Horner can galvanize the political middle where others before him have failed — the notable exception being Jesse Ventura. Last time we checked, Horner was not yet sporting a stringy beard or beads.

Horner a general election game changer

Assuming we’re right, and that Horner raises enough money to proceed and makes it to the general election ballot, the Republicans will find themselves in the unenviable position that Democrats have occupied in the last two gubernatorial elections: watching an IP candidate who will likely draw most of his/her support from the their side. This opens the possibility of a DFL win by a mere plurality of the vote, a luxury that was the exclusive domain of Republicans in the 2002 and 2006 races. Consider the vote percentages from the last two elections:

2006

Tim Pawlenty (R)            46.7 %
Mike Hatch (DFL)             45.7 %
Peter Hutchinson (IP)     6.4 %

2002

Tim Pawlenty (R)           44.4 %
Roger Moe (DFL)             36.5 %
Tim Penny (IP)                16.1 %

It’s much too early to tell how Horner will do, but the numbers show that a credible IP candidate can dramatically affect the outcome of the general election race, whether the IP candidate gets a low percentage (Hutchinson) or a higher one (Penny).

Engaging communications

Congratulations to Brian McClung and Kathleen Geiser! The two are engaged and plan to marry some time this fall. McClung is currently Gov. Tim Pawlenty‘s deputy chief of staff and communications director, and before that, press secretary. Geiser is a communications specialist with Ameriprise Financial in downtown Minneapolis. The two first met when Geiser (a Rochester native) worked on Pawlenty’s 2006 reelection campaign but only started dating six months ago. McClung popped the question on the balcony of a resort in Playa del Carmen, Mexico, on a Saturday night. Who knew McClung was such a romantic?

A special special election for the GOP

Next Tuesday’s state Senate special election to replace retiring Sen. Dick Day (R-Owatonna) is an important one for state Republicans. The candidates are Jason Engbrecht (DFL), Mike Parry (R) and Roy Srp (IP). (Are we the only ones who want to buy Srp a vowel?)

For the GOP Senate caucus, it’s an opportunity to end a five-year special election losing streak. The last special won by the Senate Republicans was in 2005, when Sen. Amy Koch (R- Buffalo) beat DFLer John Deitering and Del Haag (IP) to replacing retiring GOP Sen. Mark Ourada. Since then, the Senate Republicans have lost three special elections:
(1) the 2005 special won by Sen.Terri Bonoff (DFL-Minnetonka), who defeated GOPer Judy Johnson to replace GOP Sen. David Gaither, who was leaving to become GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty‘s chief of staff;
(2) the 2005 contest won by Sen. Tarryl Clark (DFL-St. Cloud), who defeated GOPer GOPer Dan Ochsner and IPer Dan Becker to replace Sen. Dave Kleis, who retired to run for mayor of St. Cloud; and
(3) the 2008 special election won by Sen. Kevin Dahle (DFL-Northfield), who defeated former GOP Rep. Ray Cox in his bid to replace retiring GOP Sen. Tom Neuville (appointed to the bench by Pawlenty).

People close to the race in both parties say the Engbrecht/Parry/Srp race is too close to call. Independent expenditures are being made by both DFL and GOP groups, and the pace of activity is expected to heat up from now through the election next Tuesday. State Republicans are hoping for a Parry win to add fuel to the anti-Democratic fire that everyone’s talking about after the U.S. Senate contest in Massachusetts. Whatever happens, it will be too early to attribute GOP success or failure to GOP Senate Caucus chief of staff Cullen Sheehan, who has only been on the job a few weeks. But many Republicans believe the election’s outcome will reflect very much on GOP state party chair Tony Sutton, who was elected in June on a platform that emphasized execution of the basics — like pulling out all stops to win special elections, something the GOP had done well until recent years.

Likely GOP legislative targets?

One of our favorite election-year pastimes is to compile the always-changing list of legislators and districts that both parties are targeting in the general election. Long-time GOP strategists Noah Rouen (now with Public Affairs Company) and Brian McClung (now GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty‘s deputy chief of staff) have provided us with our first 2010 list.

The two are organizing a “Rising Stars” event at which House Minority Leader Republican Leader Rep. Kurt Zellers (R-Maple Grove) and about 15 Minnesota House and Senate GOP candidates are expected to appear. The “Rising Stars” program for GOP legislative candidates, modeled after the congressional Republican “Young Guns” program, is designed to bring early attention to some of the best candidates recruited to run for the Legislature in this November’s election.

Attendees are asked to contribute to individual candidates or to the House or Senate GOP campaign committees. The event will be held January 28 at the always-GOP-popular O’Gara’s Bar in St. Paul.

Here’s a list of GOP candidates planning to participate in the “Rising Stars” event, along with notations as to which DFLers they’re challenging.

State House

Roger Crawford – 8B  [Rep. Tim Faust (DFL- Hinckley)]

Mike LeMieur – 12B [Rep. Al Doty (DFL-Royalton)]

Russ Goudge – 17B [Rep. Jeremy Kalin (DFL-North Branch)]

Sheldon Anderson – 17B [Rep. Jeremy Kalin (DFL-North Branch)]

Mike Benson – 30B [Rep. Andy Welti (DFL-Plainview)]

Kurt Bills - 37B [Rep. Phillip Sterner (DFL-Rosemount)]

Pam Myhre – 40A [Rep. Will Morgan (DFL-Burnsville)]

Pat Mazorol - 41B [Rep. Paul Rosenthal (DFL-Edina)]

Kathy Lohmer – 56A [Rep. Julie Bunn (DFL-Lake Elmo)]

Erik Ogren – 56A [Rep. Julie Bunn (DFL-Lake Elmo)]

Andrea Kieffer – 56B [Rep. Marsha Swails (DFL-Woodbury)]

State Senate

Gretchen Hoffman – 10 [Sen. Dan Skogen (DFL-Hewitt)]

Sean Nienow – 17 [Sen. Rick Olseen (DFL)]

Jim Gander – 30 [Sen. Ann Lynch (DFL-Rochester)]

Jeremy Miller – 31 [Sen. Sharon Erickson Ropes (DFL-Winona)]

Ted Lilly- 56 [Sen. Kathy Saltzman (DFL-Woodbury)]
Karin Housley – 57 [Sen. Katie Sieben (DFL-Cottage Grove)]

Does wine in grocery stores = more money in the general fund?

Regular readers of the PIM Morning Report know that we try to flag stories about issues in other states that mirror matters before the Minnesota Legislature. One of the phenomena we’ve noted in recent months is that groups pushing policy changes are trying to reconfigure those issues into fiscal ones. In other words, groups are trying to frame what would normally be termed policy changes as fiscal remedies for ailing state coffers.

Perhaps the most striking example of this phenomenon is what’s going on in New York concerning the sale of wine in grocery stores. Last year, New York grocers introduced a simple bill to allow them to sell wine, and it was soundly defeated by the state’s liquor stores. But the grocers of New York got busy, coming up with a comprehensive package that gives something to the liquor industry. This year’s proposed “Wine Industry and Liquor Store Revitalization Act” would eliminate Prohibition-era restrictions by allowing liquor store owners to expand their product offerings to such items as wine accessories and snack foods, which they’re currently prohibited from doing. (Minnesota, of course, has a similar law.) It would also allow wine to be sold in outlets that are currently licensed to sell beer.

Perhaps the biggest coup for the New York grocers was getting the buy-in from Democratic Gov. David Paterson, whose administration estimates the package would add $147 million annually to the state of New York. The bill is now part of Paterson’s proposed $1 billion package of new taxes and fees.

Certainly there are differences between how New York and Minnesota currently regulate liquor distribution and sales, but the key point they have in common is that Minnesota also has a liquor law framework predicated on a post-Prohibition market order. Proponents of the revision to New York law now include the New York Farm Bureau, the New York State Grape Growers Association, the New York Wine Industry Association, and the faction of liquor stores that stand to benefit. What percentage of the New York liquor store industry supports the bill is unclear. But the liquor stores that oppose it have taken to calling Wegman’s, a major regional grocery store chain, “greedy grocers.”

We’ll keep you posted on what happens in New York. Meanwhile, we checked with the Minnesota Grocers Association. The group does not plan to pursue wine in grocery stores this year, according to Jamie Pfuhl, the group’s executive director.

The big push in liquor policy this year is the bill to allow liquor stores to be open on Sundays. For more on this issue, check out Capitol Report’s Betsy Sundquist‘s story here. And, do note that proponents of Sunday sales have also framed the issue in terms of increasing state revenues. They estimate that Sunday sales would add $7.6 million to $10.6 million a year to the general fund. As Sundquist writes, that’s a drop in the keg when it comes to our total deficit, but every million counts.

Triumvirate of talent for Seifert

A three-judge panel will hear the complaint filed by Minneapolis history school teacher Warren Kaari against DFL City Council President Barb Johnson next Tuesday. In filing his complaint, Kaari simply attached this City Pages story to the complaint form. Kaari, by the way, is the husband of three-term Minneapolis School Board chair Anne Kaari.

If you aren’t familiar with the City Pages story, here’s the gist: Johnson was reimbursed for some hair appointments and dry-cleaning she counted as campaign expenses.

What might make this hearing particularly amusing is that your GOP publisher, Sarah Janecek, will be testifying, generally, about the higher personal appearance standards women are held to on campaigns and in the media. As an “expert” on the importance of a decent hairstyle on the campaign trail and on television, Janecek is likely to venture into hairy territory, including her own notorious inability to successfully wield a hairdryer.

Bits & Pieces

Happy first birthday to the Goff & Howard blog, where the PR and public affairs pros at G&H put their spin on “the information we find most interesting – trends in the ever-changing media, the latest social media crazes, updates and insights from our State Capitol.” Check out their five tips for bloggers here. We’ll add one more: Don’t — like G&H — make your blog hard to read by using funky color combinations of type and text.

We’ve been remiss in not noting the marriage of of PR whiz Nate Dybvig and his new wife, Liz.

Mordecai Specktor, writing for the American Jewish World, has an interview with Sam Kaplan this week. The piece focuses on the DFL activist’s role as ambassador to Morocco—one of few Jews to serve as US ambassador to an Arab nation, Specktor notes. Sam and Sylvia seem to be doing well in their new home; read for yourself at AJW.

Lots of pols were in the mix at the MCCL pro-life rally at the Capitol today. Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Norm Coleman, Reps. Michele Bachmann (R-MN6) and  Erik Paulsen (R-MN3) were a few notable faces. Legislators from both houses (and both sides of the aisle) braved the cold, too.

Charley Shaw reported for PIM this week on the Minnesota reverberations of the US Supreme Court’s landmark campaign finance ruling. Rep. Ryan Winkler (DFL-Golden Valley) has gotten specific about his legislative proposals to push back against the SCOTUS decision; look for this to be an interesting fight this session.

The National Legaue of Cities has appointed St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman to chair the 2010 Council on Youth, Education, and Families. Coleman has highlighted several St. Paul initiatives (in the realm of after-school programs, foreclosure assistance, and investment in historic neighborhoods) that he believes could be useful models for other cities.

A number of Hennepin County libraries are hosting workshops that could be invaluable to certain residents. Foreclosure information workshops are scheduled for three libraries, and will feature Q&As and free confidential counseling from the Minnesota Home Ownership Center. In a tough time for many homeowners, this is a great service from Hennepin County. Three sessions are planned; here’s the schedule. An informative document on foreclosure is also available for a reference.

Strictly for legislative wonks: the Legislative Reference Library has continued to expand its resources of Minnesota legislative history with a contribution from Secretary of the Senate Peter Wattson. They’ve posted a chart showing the legislative committee deadline dates ranging back to 1971, along with a little history about committee deadlines. We’re positive this is going to come in handy for a PIM story someday!

Center of the American Experiment is holding their second annual celebration of the late John Brandl, former dean of the Humphrey Institute. The keynote this year will be delivered by Barbara Dafoe Whitehead, Director of the John Templeton Center for Thrift and Generosity. The February 18 event is free and open to the public, and begins at 4 p.m. at the Humphrey Center. Registration is appreciated, online or by phone to Peter Zeller at 612-338-3605.

While hopping between committee meetings in the State Office Building Thursday, we saw an unfamiliar figure. Gov. Tim Pawlenty doesn’t often tread those halls, but we snapped him chatting with the Associated Press’ Brian Bakst at the stairs. Talk of “Facebook” could be overheard, so we’re betting the exchange was fodder for this AP story: Pawlenty has no plans to attend Vikings game against Saints.

File under Minneapolis Minutiae: We’re fairly sure we saw Rep. Karen Clark (DFL-Minneapolis) writing in committee this week with a clicky pen from Lowry Hill Liquors. The pens—free for the taking near the checkout line—are ubiquitous in homes and businesses around the nearby neighborhoods in Minneapolis.