Politics in Minnesota: The Weekly Report - Vol. 3, Issue 30 - 2/4/2008

In this issue: The Caucus No Longer Mocks Us; PIM Predictions: The GOP & The DFL; PIM Team Covers Dueling DFL Rallies in HD; The Recent History Of The Minnesota Not So Raucous Caucus; Caucus Night Media Round-up.
Publisher's Note: We hope you enjoy this special edition of the PIM Weekly Report. Still not sure where to go to caucus? Need to send a "how to find your caucus email" to a friend? Here's the link on DFL Secretary of State Mark Ritchie's Web site.

The Caucus No Longer Mocks Us

Finally, Minnesota matters. Not so much nationally: We're one of 24 states in Tuesday's Super Duper Tuesday gig and the hard count stakes in Minnesota are fairly low. Make that pitifully low. Minnesota Democrats will elect 2.17 percent of the total delegates attending the Democratic National Convention in Denver; Minnesota Republicans will elect 1.64 percent of the total delegates attending the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul. [Kudos to MinnPost's Eric Black for doing the math and detailing the state delegate selection process here.]

But for Minnesotans interested in their state's political life, the 2008 caucuses matter hugely. Heated contests for President in both parties, a heated contest in the DFL to run against GOP U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman. Both the GOP and the DFL will be electing people who will elect other people to Congressional District and statewide conventions, a process that will realign if not redefine what those parties stand for in the post-George Bush presidency era. Pretty exciting stuff, if you're a Minnesota political junkie.

PIM Predictions: The GOP

Continuing 25 rich years of PIM predictions, here's what we think will happen.

The only significant event on the GOP side is the presidential straw poll. According to GOP communications director Mark Drake, the party is hoping to have results in time for the 10 p.m. news. We think it will a be tight race for number one between John McCain and Mitt Romney (we're split on who wins). Romney has been organizing for months, with former GOP Congressman Vin Weber leading the charge nationally, and GOP National Committeeman Brian Sullivan leading the effort in Minnesota. Not inconsequentially, many of same people Sullivan organized for caucuses in 2002 when he was running for governor have been organized for Romney. And, lest you've forgotten, in 2002, Sullivan trounced the other candidate for governor at the time of precinct caucuses. In March 2002, in the GOP gubernatorial preference straw poll, Sullivan beat then-House Maj. Leader Rep. Tim Pawlenty, 51 percent to 37 percent.

Working in John McCain's favor is the simple innate human desire to support a winner. McCain's resurgence -- along with his own flagrant predictions that he will win big on Tuesday -- make McCain the winner to support. Gov. Tim Pawlenty's co-chairmanship of McCain's national campaign, along with the recent endorsements by U.S. Sen. Norm Coleman and U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad don't hurt either. Mike Huckabee comes in third, with a surprisingly low number (less than 20 percent), which is significant since GOP State Party Chair Ron Carey jumped on the Huckabee campaign right after Iowa. Ron Paul is a distant fourth, lucky to get even five percent.

PIM Predictions: The DFL

Democrats will take a secret preferential presidential ballot and also hope to have those results by 10 p.m. On the DFL side, we predict Tuesday night will be a blow-out for Barack Obama. 20,000 people at the Target Center is stunning. [See next story.] Those people--and their friends and family--will go to caucuses. While many an establishment-type Democrat is supporting Hillary Clinton, if ever there was an anti-establishment year, 2008 is it.

Predicting the impact of the massive influx of Obama supporters on the DFL U.S. Senate endorsement contest is much more problematic. If you assume Obama is to the left of Clinton, ideologically, then you have to assume that helps Al Franken and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer at the expense of Mike Ciresi.

Not so fast. Before Obamarama hit Minnesota, Education Minnesota and AFSCME Council 5 had massive plans to organize caucuses for Franken. An Obama blow-out also blows up all that union organizing. The result is a ton of new people in the DFL caucus system who none of the three DFL contenders knows, let alone has had a chance yet to organize. That would seem to help Mike Ciresi, who was facing that daunting union gauntlet, which by the way, is heavily tied to Clinton.

Finally, when all is said and done, by far the biggest winners in Minnesota's precinct caucus sweepstakes are every Democrat standing for an election this fall. We're betting that DFL turnout is at least three times the GOP's at this year's caucuses. The Star Tribune's Bob Von Sternberg checked with GOP Party Chair Ron Carey and DFL Party Chair Brian Melendez to write that the highest DFL caucus turnout was 75,000 in 1968, "when favorite sons Hubert Humphrey and Eugene McCarthy were among those fighting for the nomination." The GOP did its best in 1996, with about 30,000 caucus attendees. [We use the number 100,000 in the chart, below, because that's former PIM editor D.J. Leary's number, and Leary was working for Humphrey in 1968 and we trust Melendez won't object to our deference to Leary.]

If the DFL turnout this year is 3-1 over the Republicans, or even 2-1, Democrats can rightly claim that energy and that much ballyhooed concept of "change" are on their side. And, Republicans thought 2006 was a bad year...

PIM Team Covers Dueling DFL Rallies in HD

PIM Web Editor Dan Feidt and cameraman/editor Andrew French taped this weekend's dueling Democratic barn-burner political rallies. First, Barack Obama at the Target Center, and then Hillary Clinton at Augsburg College. The two borrowed a Sony 1080i HVR-AU1, and they got good high-definition footage from the press risers. Each video, less than two minutes long, tries to capture the spirit permeating the events. Nearly everyone, it seemed, had a cellphone or pocket camera; as you'll see, the crowd wanted to observe and record the final round of rallies before Super Tuesday.

For PIM's first video foray, we started an online video channel at politicsinminnesota.blip.tv, which plays both automatically. (The videos are also at blip.tv/file/646937/ and blip.tv/file/646901. Neither member of the team had used an HD video camera before. Each frame of HD has more pixels than six standard television screens, so only about 1/16th of the full image even makes it to the Internet clips. (We're posting the clips on YouTube later @ youtube.com/PoliticsInMn, because that service offers much more blurry video.)

The Sony imparted a smooth, detailed and natural look the team didn't expect, but on the other hand, the audio got a little bit blown out. (Won't happen next time!) For video geeks, HD is like a whole new tool kit. For politicians, it means they have to manage their visuals even more. Speaking at Oak Street Cinema this weekend, actor Crispin Glover said that HD video demanded even more skill from actors and producers; for politicians, it might be even more true.

[Publisher's Notes. One, the best part is the Hillary video where she first makes her appearance known by popping out of the crowd. Bully for Andy, he just happened to have the camera focused on that precise point in the crowd at the right moment. Two, while Feidt and French were at the Target Center, I was running errands downtown. There was a crowd of Obama supporters in Gavidae Commons...the line to get into the Target Center stretched that far across downtown.]

The Recent History Of The Minnesota Not So Raucous Caucus

Comparing this year's precinct caucuses is a little like comparing those big juicy Texas Ruby Red grapefruits to that bag of Clementines bought pre-Christmas that are slowly shriveling up in the back of the refrigerator, where they'll get tossed sometime in March (the old Minnesota precinct caucus month). Ain't no comparison.

Nevertheless, we did it anyway. We wanted to know what political dynamics were in play at the time of every precinct caucus since Ronald Reagan became president in 1980. What follows is our distillation of what was happening, compiled from our own recollections, those of many party activists we've talked to the last few weeks, 25 years of PIM and a touch or two of Google.

2006	The Republicans were united behind GOP incumbent Gov. Tim Pawlenty. The Democrats had a heated contest among businessman Kelly Doran, then-Attorney General Mike Hatch, then-Sen. Steve Kelley and then-Sen. Becky Lourey. The most significant caucus activity on the GOP side was in the Sixth Congressional District. Now U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann successfully turned out significant numbers of new people who went on to elect delegates who endorsed her over Jay Esme, then-Rep. Jim Knoblach and then-Rep. Phil Krinkie.
2004	Republicans were supporting incumbent President George Bush. DFLers were choosing between the three remaining major Democratic contenders, John Edwards, Al Gore and John Kerry. Howard Dean had screamed too wildly in Iowa and was out of the race at Minnesota caucus time. Wrote PIM, "DFL Caucus turnout on Tuesday night was astounding...some 50,000 people went to DFL caucuses."
2002	Heated contests in both parties for governor. GOP businessman Brian Sullivan beat then-House Min. Leader Rep. Tim Pawlenty in the caucus straw poll, 51 percent to 37 percent. The DFL did not take a straw poll in a race where the three major contenders were then-State Auditor Judi Dutcher, then-Sen. Becky Lourey and then-Maj. Leader Sen. Roger Moe, who went on to win the statewide endorsement.
2000	Both George Bush and Al Gore had already nailed their endorsing contest. In the U.S. Senate contest, then-U.S. Rep. Rod Grams was running unopposed for the GOP endorsment. On the DFL side, the following were seeking the DFL endorsement: Mike Ciresi, Mark Dayton, then-Sen. Jerry Janezich, and business woman Rebecca Yanisch.
1998	There were heated gubernatorial contests in both parties. The GOP contenders were Lt. Gov. Joanne Benson, then-St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman, Allen Quist and then-Sen. Roy Terwilliger. The DFL contenders were Mark Dayton, Hennepin County Attorney Mike Freeman, then-Senate Tax Chair Doug Johnson and former Sen. Ted Mondale.
1996	Bill Clinton was running as the popular Democratic incumbent president; GOP presidential contenders that year included Lamar Alexander (TN), Pat Buchanan, Bob Dole (KA), Steve Forbes and Phil Gramm (TX). The only presidential candidate to make an appearance in Minnesota was a lesser GOP contender, Alan Keyes. A group of moderate Republicans who called themselves the "Republican Organizing Committee" told their ranks to stay home because "caucuses don't matter." PIM called the GOP and DFL caucuses, "yawners." However, there was a heated contest in the GOP that year to run against first-term DFL U.S. Sen. Paul Wellstone among former U.S. Sen. Rudy Boschwitz (who lost to Wellstone in 1990), businessman (now attorney and Metropolitan Airports Commissioner) Bert McKasy and then -Edina state Sen. Roy Terwilliger (now Chair of the Metropolitan Sports Facilities Commission). For the first time in state history, a third party organized caucuses (that party was the Independence Party, which assumed major political party status under state law in 1994 when Independence Party U.S. Senate candidate Dean Barkley got more than five percent of the vote in 1992).
1994	PIM reported that caucus attendance for the GOP was 24,000 and 30,000, for the DFL (compared to more than 100,000 DFLers in 1968 when two Minnesotans were running for president, Dem. U.S. Senators Hubert Humphrey and Eugene McCarthy). Hot contest in the GOP for the endorsement to run for U.S. Senate (seat being vacated by GOPer U.S. Sen. Dave Durenberger) included then U.S. Rep. Rod Grams (who won the endorsement and the general election that year), Lt. Gov. Joanell Dyrstad, Hamline University Law Professor Doug McFarland, Bert McKasy and Sen. Gen Olson (R-Minnetrista). Conservative activist Allen Quist tried to pack caucuses to get the GOP gubernatorial endorsement instead of more moderate incumbent GOPer Arne Carlson. In the fray to run against Carlson were former Minneapolis Police Chief Tony Bouza, Hennepin County Attorney Mike Freeman, Mike Hatch (at that time in private practice) and Sen. John Marty (DFL-Roseville) -- who won the DFL endorsement that year.
1992	Five Democrats were vying to be the Democratic endorsee against incumbent GOP Pres. George H.W. Bush. The five were Bill Clinton (AK), Michael Dukakis (MA), Tom Harkin (IA), Bob Kerrey (NB) and Doug Wilder (VA). Party chairs Todd Otis (DFL) and Bob Weinholzer (IR) were stumping the state trying to bring new people to caucuses. The parties jointly paid for public service TV ads, a special cable program, news releases, etc. PIM wrote, "the general impression [among regular Minnesotans] was that caucuses were where bad people went who didn't want the rest of us to vote." Redistricting lines had not been set so candidates for legislative, county and city districts didn't know how to organize.
1990	Incumbent DFLer Rudy Perpich was running for a third term. Vying for the GOP gubernatorial endorsement were then-State Auditor Arne Carlson, Ecolab lobbyist Jon Grunseth and attorney Doug Kelley. Grunseth went on to win the statewide endorsement, but later withdrew and Minnesota elected Carlson. Vying to run against then-incumbent GOP U.S. Sen. Rudy Boschwitz were former Perpich Administration Commissioner of Agriculture Jim Nichols and Carleton College Professor Paul Wellstone, who went on to win the endorsement and beat Boschwitz.
1988	With President Reagan exiting to Rancho del Cielo to ride horses and watch sunsets, the four GOP presidential contenders were Vice President George Bush, U.S. Sen. Minority Leader Bob Dole (KS), Representative Jack Kemp (NY) and television evangelist Pat Robertson. The Democratic contenders, derisively dubbed the "Seven Dwarves" by GOP detractors were Paul Simon (IL), Dick Gephardt (MO), Jesse Jackson, Gary Hart (CO), Michael Dukakis (MA), Joe Biden (DE), Al Gore (TN), Lloyd Bentsen (TX). [Careful readers will count eight, we can't figure out who had dropped out at this point to create the Seven Dwarves.] PIM wrote, "Bush's campaign is non-existent...Bush hasn't sent so much as even one postcard to Minnesota this campaign." Your current PIM publisher was trying to organize people to caucus for Dole.
1986	PIM wrote, "Attendance at precinct caucuses dropped to all time lows this year...the whole caucus system seems to have died while leaders of both parties watched helplessly. Let's face it. The public, through its unwillingness to play the caucus game.....[wants a primary system, not a caucus system]... [T]he parties' endorsement process is becoming a sad community joke that has been discredited with some regularity in primary elections in most recent years." State Republicans vying to run against incumbent DFL Gov. Rudy Perpich were Mike Menning, Wallace Brattrud, James Lindau, Cal Ludeman, Beatrice Mooney and Douglas Williams.
1984	Three Democrats were in the race to run against incumbent GOP President Ronald Reagan: Gary Hart (CO), Jesse Jackson and Walter Mondale. PIM reported that while Minnesota was Mondale country, Hart was doing well. With GOP U.S. Sen. Rudy Boschwitz the incumbent and perceived as vulnerable, there was a heated contest among DFL U.S. Senate candidate wannabes which included Hennepin County Commissioner John Derus, Secretary of State Joan Growe, U.S. House Rep. Jim Oberstar.
1982	The Democrats had a contest in who would run against incumbent GOP U.S. Sen. Dave Durenberger; the two were Mark Dayton and Eugene McCarthy. The DFL endorsing contest for Governor was between Rudy Perpich and Warren Spannaus. The GOP gubernatorial endorsing contest was between Lou Wangberg and Wheelock Whitney.
1980	GOP for prez Ronald Reagan (CA), Rep. John B. Anderson (IL), Howard Baker (TN), George H.W. Bush, John Connelly (TX), Rep. Phil Crane (IL), Bob Dole (KS), Larry Pressler and Harold Stassen (besides 1980, Stassen ran in 1948, 1952, 1964, 1968, 1976, 1984, 1988 and 1992). Dems for prez Jerry Brown (CA), Jimmy Carter (GA) and Ted Kennedy (MA).

Caucus Night Media Round-up

On the Web. Both the Star Tribune and the St. Paul Pioneer Press plan to post updates online as they come in. We expect many well-known Minnesota bloggers to tell their caucus tales online, as well.

On television. The three major network affiliates will break into national coverage when they can. KARE 11 will have a team of four reporters monitoring the results at both the state and national level. The political analysis will be provided by Washington University Prof. Steve Smith and Hamline University Prof. David Schultz, along with KARE 11's own political team of Scott Goldberg and John Croman. WCCO will have reporters at the Union Carpenters Hall in St. Paul monitoring the Democratic results plus one reporter each at a Democratic and Republican Caucus. Pat Kessler will be live in studio, with Don Shelby and the University of Minnesota's Larry Jacobs providing analysis. KSTP will be sending a small army out to cover the caucuses. Nine reporters will be out in force covering candidates and caucuses and Steve Schier from Carleton will be providing in studio analysis.

Fox 9 News will have the most extensive Minnesota-focused television coverage. At 8:00 p.m., the station will air a live webcast, and then plans two hours of live local television coverage starting at 9:00 p.m. Commentators for Fox include former GOP Gov. Arne Carlson, your publisher, Sarah Janecek, and Brian Lambert, the leftie media critic who writes and blogs for Minneapolis-St. Paul Magazine. Will there be fireworks or friendship between Janecek and Lambert? Both transpired on the now-defunct Lambert & Janecek which aired on KTLK FM.

On the radio. Starting at 7:00 p.m, WCCO will have Erik Eskola and Dark Star in studio with Tunheim Partner's Blois Olson and GOP woman in the know Maureen Shaver providing the punditry. 'CCO's focus will be local, with interruptions for national, and the station will have at least two reporters in the field covering various caucuses. MPR will be airing NPR national coverage from 7:00 p.m - 2:00 a.m. Mike Mulcahy and Gary Eitchen will be cutting with local news and updates. Five reporters will be dispatched around the state producing stories that will air Wednesday morning. KTLK will be mixing in updates to their national coverage which FOX News Radio will provide. The station will also have two reporters in the field covering a caucus for each party.