Straw polls bring some clarity to gubernatorial contests

Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak appears to have narrowly won the DFL gubernatorial straw poll in Tuesday’s precinct caucuses, edging out House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher.

With 80 percent of the results reported, Rybak had support from 21.8 percent of those who participated, while Kelliher was the top pick of 20.2 percent of participants. The rest of the DFL field trailed well behind. In fact, the next largest vote recipient was “uncommitted” with 14.6 percent of the vote.

The GOP straw poll cemented what had been widely suspected: It’s a two-horse race between state Reps. Marty Seifert and Tom Emmer. With practically all results in, Seifert holds a 50-39 percent lead. The next closest contender, state Sen. David Hann, received support from just 5 percent of straw poll participants.

Kelliher and Rybak have clearly emerged as favorites on the DFL side, but the field remains a bit more muddied. State Sen. John Marty led the second tier of candidates with support from 9.6 percent of caucus participants. State Reps. Tom Rukavina and Paul Thissen each registered support from 7.2 percent of straw poll participants. They were followed by former House Minority Leader Matt Entenza (6.7 percent), state Sen. Tom Bakk (6.3 percent), former state Sen. Steve Kelley (4.1 percent) and Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner (2.1 percent).

Further complicating matters is the fact that three DFL candidates — Entenza, Gaertner and former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (who didn’t take part in the straw poll) — are expected to run in the primary no matter who emerges with the endorsement. No candidates immediately dropped from the contest. Thissen and Bakk released statements confirming that they will remain in the race.

While the straw poll is meaningless, it will shape perceptions and influence political contributions in the months leading up to April’s state DFL convention.

**UPDATE**

With almost all results in, the DFL percentages stayed roughly the same. Here’s the rundown:

Rybak: 21.7

Kelliher: 20.1

Uncommitted: 14.8

Marty: 9.6

Rukavina: 7.2

Thissen: 7.2

Entenza: 6.8

Bakk: 6.3

Kelley: 4.1

Gaertner: 2.1