Many questions remain about DFL gubernatorial field as endorsement process begins

The DFL gubernatorial contest still appears wide open.  Organized labor has failed to unite behind a single candidate. The money chase has also yielded little distance between the candidates.

Sunday’s vote by the members of TakeAction Minnesota provides some insight into who the favorites might be for ultimately securing the DFL endorsement. The group named three “preferred” candidates: Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, state Rep. Paul Thissen and House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher.

But the bottom line remains the same: there are 10 credible (sorry Ole Savior) candidates in the mix as the party’s endorsement process officially begins tonight with precinct caucuses.

The failure of Democrats to winnow down the field is not surprising. Republicans historically have been much more disciplined about uniting behind a candidate. And the GOP contest now looks increasingly like a two-horse race between state Reps. Marty Seifert and Tom Emmer. By contrast, many questions still remain to be answered before the DFL nominee is determined.

Will the legislative session dog Kelliher? The House Speaker has the most delicate political dance to perform. The DFL endorsing convention will take place just as the budgetary endgame is playing out at the Capitol. Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s presidential ambitions give him little incentive to compromise in closing the state’s $1.2 billion budget deficit. That means the waning days of the legislative session could be a bloodbath.

“She has the most to win and the most to lose,” says David Schultz, a political science professor at Hamline University. “I can’t help imagining that this legislative session she’s just going to get chewed up.”

How formidable is Rybak? The knock on the Minneapolis Mayor has been that he’ll struggle to compete outside the metro area. To put it crudely, there’s some question about whether his metrosexual sense of style will play well in Bemidji. That’s why the endorsement of Duluth Mayor Don Ness, along with three Duluth City Council members, last week could be viewed as significant. It’s an initial sign that Rybak has strength beyond the Twin Cities.

The nod from TakeAction may have been predictable, but the margin of Rybak’s victory was impressive. He received 336 votes — 72 more than the next leading challenger.

A nagging question about Rybak is his ability to raise money. He has a reputation for not being very diligent about dialing for dollars. The fact that he ended the year with just $25,000 in the bank re-enforces this perception.

Can Thissen emerge from the political scrum? The TakeAction nod was also significant for Thissen. He’s been considered on the fringe of the pack of front-runners. Finishing in the top three allows him to stay in a strong position to stalk the field. He’s proven a formidable fundraiser and is widely liked and respected. If the field deadlocks, he could emerge as a consensus candidate.

Will Bakk and Rukavina devour each other? There’s certainly potential for a non-metro candidate to be a serious contender for the endorsement. State Sen. Tom Bakk seemed strongly positioned to be that candidate, with solid fundraising numbers, robust labor support and a prominent post as chair of the Senate’s Taxes Committee.

But the entrance of state Rep. Tom Rukavina, another Iron Range candidate with populist appeal, muddied the electoral waters for Bakk. While some political observers initially questioned the seriousness of Rukavina’s campaign, he’s run a strong, credible operation.

How much will Dayton and Entenza spend? The biggest wildcards in the race remain the candidates with the ability to self-finance their campaigns. Former House Minority Leader Matt Entenza has not-so-subtly made it clear that he’s willing to spend scads of money to be competitive in the contest and seems to have half the DFL operatives in the state on his payroll. But there’s little evidence that it’s made much difference in bolstering his prospects.

Former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton has thumbed his nose at the DFL endorsement process. Not only did he announce his intention to run in the primary no matter who gets the party’s endorsement, he took the additional (and rather odd) step of removing his name from the straw poll at the caucuses. But Dayton’s broad name recognition, deep pockets and track record of winning statewide races means he will be formidable.

Will Marty stay in the race? The biggest loser from Sunday’s vote was state Sen. John Marty. As the staunchest liberal of the bunch, he should have played well with the TakeAction crowd. The fact that he couldn’t manage a top-three finish raises the question of where he’s going to find sufficient support to be a factor in the endorsement battle. Memories of his 1994 gubernatorial hiding have dogged the campaign from the outset.

How many candidates will ultimately run in the primary? Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner’s announcement that she won’t abide by the DFL endorsement means there will likely be at least four candidates in the primary contest. But could other contenders ignore the party’s process? The state campaign finance board’s punishment of Kelliher and the state DFL party for skirting rules governing political donations provides a potential out for candidates who have previously vowed to abide by the endorsement.

What impact will an August primary have on the contest? There seems to be consensus that the primary election needs to be moved to August in order to accommodate absentee voting. This means that voters will head to the polls at a time when most people are more concerned with visits to their cabins and the state fair. The upshot: turnout will almost certainly be down. But does that increase or decrease the value of the DFL endorsement? And does it change the influence of paid media on the contest?

“That’s one of the most interesting variables,” says Schultz. “I don’t think any of us know how an August primary is going to play out.”

One Response to “Many questions remain about DFL gubernatorial field as endorsement process begins”

1. GP Says:
   February 2nd, 2010 at 5:38 pm

   You knock RT for being a crappy fundraiser, but he raised $138,000 in only two months in 2009 (Nov and Dec). In 2010 he has already raised another $140,000.

   He only had $25,000 in the bank at the end of 2009, so you can certainly criticize his high rate of spending, but I really don’t see how you can doubt his fundraising ability or effort.