Big political ambitions will make budget progress even harder

From election law battles to the state budget deficit, there’s a host of bogeys waiting for lawmakers in St. Paul when the 2010 legislative session starts on Feb. 4. But the most formidable specter haunting the Capitol halls will be politics itself.

Several top legislators from both parties are running for governor. GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who isn’t seeing re-election this year, is busy laying the foundation for a 2012 presidential campaign.

Everything that happens during the session will be viewed through the lens of these lawmakers’ political ambitions, said University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs. And the rotunda will rumble.

“I’m thinking of one of those monster truck rallies,” Jacobs said.

The name of the game this session is to look good politically and to address the most pressing needs of the state’s critically impaired general fund budget. But in view of all the electioneering that will be going on - in addition to races for governor and other constitutional offices, all 201 legislative seats will be on the ballot this fall - those two aims could prove to be mutually exclusive.

One reason things could get ugly is that lawmakers don’t have much room to manage the state’s budget without drastic action.

There’s even less space to maneuver than last session, when legislators faced a $4.6 billion deficit for 2010-2011. Last year’s conflict between Pawlenty and DFLers in the Legislature over tax increases ended in a stalemate in May, when House Republicans held ranks on veto override votes on DFL tax and budget proposals.

Pawlenty’s use of unallotment powers to cut $2.7 billion from the budget was the deus ex machina that dispatched legislators back to their districts without a prolonged special session.

Depending on one’s point of view, lawmakers got some very good or very bad news in late December when Ramsey County Judge Kathleen Gearin agreed with a group of low-income plaintiffs who charged that Pawlenty used unallotment illegally. The ruling affected only a $5.3 million nutrition program. But if it withstands a Minnesota Supreme Court review and Gearin’s rationale is applied to the rest of the unallotments, lawmakers could have an even bigger money problem on their hands than is currently forecast.

“Let’s be candid about that. Judge Gearin’s decision is important for the legislative process. But at this moment… it’s a disaster. The process is almost incapable of dealing with a problem of such magnitude and political intensity,” Jacobs said.

The anticipated stalemate over the budget could result in a special session that drags into the summer like in 2005, said St. Olaf University political science professor Dan Hofrenning.

“The governor isn’t going to move on taxes, and the DFL will hold its ground as strong as it ever has. I think we would be lucky to avoid a government shutdown, frankly,” Hofrenning said.

In previous legislative sessions, the DFL-controlled House has taken on Pawlenty over the budget with mixed results.

House Republicans have held the keys to success or failure for DFLers in their battles with Pawlenty during his second term. While Democrats in the Senate have enough votes to overturn a veto, House DFLers haven’t had the votes to override Pawlenty without support from at least a few Republicans.

After the GOP lost the majority in the 2006 elections, former leader Marty Seifert, R-Marshall, and his caucus were tested on two major occasions with mixed results.

In 2008, six House Republicans joined all DFLers to override Pawlenty’s veto of a transportation funding bill that contained a gas tax increase and local sales tax increase authority to pay for transit in the Twin Cities metropolitan area.

Last session, however, the House GOP held together when DFLers brought override attempts at the end of session on an income tax increase bill and funding for the General Assistance Medical Care (GAMC) program.

One of the most pivotal leadership spots in recent sessions, the House minority leader, will be handled this year by rookie Kurt Zellers, R-Maple Grove. Seifert resigned his leadership post after last year’s session to launch a bid for governor. Despite this change at the House GOP helm, few Capitol watchers are expecting to see overrides attempted in the House in 2010.

Indeed, House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, DFL-Minneapolis, takes political risks if she pursues an ambitious approach to the budget. House DFLers have a commanding 87-47 advantage over Republicans. That majority has widened considerably in recent election cycles as DFLers have picked up seats in relatively conservative districts thanks partly to Republican President George W. Bush’s low approval ratings.

The result is that numerous DFLers in both chambers won surprise elections by 5 percentage points or less. Now that Democrats appear to be against the ropes (a perception strengthened by the recent upset victory of Republican Scott Brown in Massachusetts), the perils could be great if gubernatorial candidate Kelliher attempts a legislative challenge to Pawlenty on tax increases.

But refusing to take risks could likewise be risky for Kelliher and her caucus. Some have claimed the recent malaise that has befallen Democrats nationally is due to a failure to realize key priorities like health care reform and economic recovery. It could be politically damaging for DFLers not to confront Pawlenty, especially since acceding to Pawlenty’s budget philosophy would anger core DFL constituents like unions, said Hamline University professor David Schultz.

“Do they take a cautious approach? Or do they say: ‘Gosh, if we don’t deliver on those promises we’re going to go down in flames’? They are equally compelling arguments,” Schultz said.

On the bright side, Pawlenty and some top administration officials have been engaged with DFL legislators on key issues in recent months, and have shown restraint in making cuts to  deal with the $1.2 billion budget hole that opened up in the November economic forecast.

Pawlenty’s Department of Revenue commissioner, Ward Einess, has been working with DFLers on a tax credit proposal for so-called angel investors. Einess has said that Pawlenty will propose a tax credit plan that is paid for in the governor’s supplemental budget, which DFLers are eagerly awaiting. Department of Human Services Commissioner Cal Ludeman has been meeting with legislators to find a way to fund GAMC.

“He has offered a few olive branches,” said one long-time lobbyist who isn’t actively affiliated with either party.

However, when Pawlenty sits down to the negotiating table with Kelliher and Senate Majority Leader Larry Pogemiller, DFL-Minneapolis, consensus will be difficult to achieve, said one DFL lobbyist.

“It’s going to be the governor working with Margaret and Larry, and that’s a dysfunctional relationship,” the lobbyist said.

With so many state lawmakers in the hunt for higher office, the 2010 legislative session stands to be a golden opportunity for aspiring pols to introduce bills with noble aims and deliver ardent floor speeches. In light of the budget morass, the job of governor doesn’t look appealing to the faint of heart. But there are three GOP candidates for governor in the Legislature, and four sitting DFL legislators in the race.

Republican candidates are likely to offer welfare changes and tax-cut proposals that won’t stand a chance of passing, the DFL lobbyist said. DFL candidates similarly will make floor speeches on tax increases and universal health-care coverage.

“How does that play out and what proposals are offered? I assume there will be things that will be offered for delegates,” the DFL lobbyist said.

Jacobs thinks the political dynamics of the session will yield little progress in bringing long-term fiscal stability back to Minnesota. Even though the projected budget deficit for 2012-2013 could be as high as $8 billion, he expects little more than band-aid fixes.

But the immensity of the state’s woes makes for a more significant session than anybody realized just months ago, Jacobs said.

“A session that probably six or eight months ago we were saying would be a short session [has] all of a sudden swelled into one of the most significant sessions that the state’s faced,” Jacobs said.

One Response to “Big political ambitions will make budget progress even harder”

1. Oakie Says:
   January 31st, 2010 at 2:59 am

   Setting aside our political differences…

   It is going to get harder. I have a proposal for the Legislative body and the State of Minnesota in the Health Care platform issue.

   “No cost and free health care to all senior American citizens of the Great State of Minnesota (Oakie, 2010).
   It is simple in its format and I have a model of best practices and lessons learned.

   One can take either political party, yet we set aside our differences by setting the standard as humanity will endure, a pioneer state to provide medical services toward our senior citizens, the benefit they so deserve.

   It would be a great honor to serve those who gave us birth.

   We are the seed of their loins, thus we will provide and it is a good thing.

   Warm Regards,

   Oakie

   p.s. Senior Citiizens in my township have 25% of the vote, what say you? This will be a challenge toward the cities.