With Coleman out, eyes turn to Emmer’s challenge

Norm Coleman’s surprise announcement that he won’t be running for governor, combined with Rep. Marty Seifert’s (R-Marshall) self-proclaimed status as the front runner in the contest for the GOP endorsement, mean that the guy in the race to watch right now is Rep. Tom Emmer (R-Delano).

While Emmer reports that he raised $115,000 in 2009, I hear his fundraising is going gangbusters this year, particularly now that Pat Anderson has decided to run for state auditor and not governor. But for a statewide unknown like Emmer, fundraising may be less immediately important than the straw poll to be taken on precinct caucus night, Feb. 2.  Emmer should come in second, but how close to Seifert can he get?

Emmer supporters claim they’re picking up close to 100 percent of the people who were supporting Anderson, and I’ve no reason to doubt that. Here, for the sake of reference, are the numbers from the straw poll taken at the state convention in October 2009:

Marty Seifert, 454 votes (37 percent)

Tom Emmer, 283 votes (23 percent)

Pat Anderson, 174 votes (14 percent)

David Hann, 146 votes (12 percent)

Bill Haas, 10 votes (1% percent

It’s not hard to see how Emmer, if he’s really picking up the “Ron Paulites” who had gone with Anderson, could easily hit that number two spot. He will be releasing a list of endorsers early next week.

Besides targeting former Anderson supporters, the Emmer campaign also hopes to increase caucus attendance by galvanizing the “St. Thomas Network,” one of the best college alumni networks in the state.  I’ve known many a  University of St. Thomas grad who got his or her first job through the network, and as best I can recall, it’s only been used once in politics before, by former St. Paul GOP Rep. Bert McKasy, who tried to galvanize it in his U.S. Senate bid in 1996 when he was challenging former U.S. Sen. Rudy Boschwitz for the GOP endorsement to run against then-U.S. Sen. Paul Wellstone.

As I understand it, there are about 100,000 Minnesotans in the St. Thomas Network. Even a small percentage of that network could affect what’s expected to be low GOP caucus turnout. For comparison’s sake, the state GOP said it had more than 100,000 caucus attendees in 2002, a mere 13,000 in 2006, and 57,000 in 2008 (those RonPaulites).

Speaking of the St. Thomas Network, Emmer recently picked off a member of that network who happens to be one of the best GOP strategists and communications gurus in Bill Walsh, the former state GOP communications director and House GOP Caucus staffer. Walsh is now the communications director and federal liaison for the Department of Education.  [And, for the record, Walsh handles all his political communications on his personal cell phone.]

One Response to “With Coleman out, eyes turn to Emmer’s challenge”

1. Leslie Davis Says:
   January 18th, 2010 at 11:23 pm

   Just what we need is another lawyer running the Executive Branch of government. Haven’t we learned our lesson yet? Lawyer Pawlenty running the Executive, lawyers running the Judiciary, lawyers running the Senate Judicial Committee, and lawyers running the House Civil Justice Committee. Enough with the lawyers. It’s time for a businessman, environmentalist, author, executive salesman, grandfather, and marketing expert. My name is Leslie Davis and I have great plans for Minnesota. Check me out. http://www.LeslieDavis.org