Pawlenty, Coleman and the election certificate mystery

Lots of buzz this morning over Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s Sunday appearance on CNN, which seemed to suggest he’ll sign Al Franken’s US Senate election certificate if the Minnesota Supreme Court directs him to do so. Pawlenty had said as much before–most memorably at his June 2 presser announcing he would not run for governor in 2010–but this time there was less in the way of qualification than at some points in the recent past.

Here’s the full exchange with CNN anchor John King:

King: Will you certify the election based on your state Supreme Court’s ruling? Is that it for you?

Pawlenty: I’m going to follow the direction of the court, John. We expect that ruling any day now. I also expect them to give guidance and direction as to the certificate of election. I’m prepared to sign it as soon as they give the green light.

King: If Norm Coleman loses at the state supreme court and says he’s going to appeal to the US Supreme Court, will you give him that time, or will you say, sorry, Sen. Coleman, our state supreme court–our highest court in this state–has spoken, and I will follow their lead?

Pawlenty: Well, a federal court could stay or put a limit on or stop the effect of the state court ruling if they chose. If they do that, I would certainly follow their direction. But if that doesn’t happen promptly, or it drags out for any period of time, then we need to move ahead with signing the certificate if I’m ordered to do that by the state court.

King: And if you’re ordered to do that and they say Al Franken has narrowly won the election, you’re prepared to sign it?

Pawlenty: I’m not going to defy an order of the Minnesota Supreme Court. That would be a dereliction of my duty. But a federal court could weigh in and say don’t do that, and order a different result.

You’ll notice that Pawlenty is still hedging a bit, contrary to many blogosphere summaries of his words. But it does appear that the emphasis has shifted in the direction of bringing the whole thing to an end. This seems consistent with PIM’s prior speculation that former Sen. Norm Coleman himself may want–or need–to move on.

But ultimately it’s still hard to sort out what’s driving the change of heart. There are three distinct levels of self-interest on the GOP side of this episode, and they aren’t identical or necessarily even consistent.

• You’ve got the national GOP and its senatorial committee, which have wanted to keep the Senate short of 60 Democrats following the defection of Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter. It’s hard to see why the GOP would change its tune, unless it a) fears long-range damage in Minnesota from pressing on and/or b) thinks taking the matter to the US Supreme Court would be a brief as well as a futile endeavor.
• Then there’s Pawlenty, who has been caught between the wishes of a national GOP apparatus he can ill afford to alienate as a 2012 presidential candidate and an increasingly restive electorate back home that could put a serious dent in his national credibility by turning on him in the waning days of his final term.
• And finally, Coleman himself. It was Roll Call that initially suggested there were internal rumblings from Team Norm about dropping out if they lost at the Minnesota Supreme Court, and the words of spokesman Tom Erickson a few days later ("no decisions have been made") hardly amounted to a denial.

Can’t wait for the campaign postmortem tell-all that sorts these matters out.

No Responses to “Pawlenty, Coleman and the election certificate mystery”

1. Anonymous Says:
   June 29th, 2009 at 7:54 pm

   at least we are not getting perdictions and false scoops if and when the mn supremes render a ruling from you guys. my source is the minnisota judicial branch website for a ruling.