The deficit next time: $4.9 billion, says preliminary nonpartisan estimate

There’s some dispute over the size of the deficit that state government can expect to confront in the next budgeting session in 2011. At his unallotment presser on Tuesday (I’ve got a fuller summary at CapReport), Gov. Tim Pawlenty put the figure at $4 billion. Former state finance commissioner Jay Kiedrowski has said $4.5 billion.

This afternoon we hear from a Senate staffer that an initial nonpartisan legislative estimate is setting the number at $4.9 billion. (The source stresses that the estimate is preliminary and may change.)

The major components break down this way: a structural deficit carried forward that amounts to $3.1 billion by fiscal year 2012; a $1.7 billion school cost shift repayment; and about $100 million in deferred obligations from the current biennium.

Expect to hear these numbers, or more refined estimates of same, at tomorrow’s meeting of the Legislative Advisory Commission, where Management and Budget Commissioner Tom Hanson will present Pawlenty’s unallotments.