State tax revenues for last three months down 10.7 percent from same period a year ago (updated)

Minnesota’s April tax receipts of $1.27 billion were down $24 million (1.8 percent) from the state’s revised February economic forecast, and $192 million (13 percent) from the same period one year ago.

The shortfall for the month would have been much worse if not for business tax receipts of $44.4 million that more than doubled the $20.7 million projected in the February forecast. That unexpected windfall nearly canceled out the decline against forecast of $25.5 million (3.1 percent) in personal income tax revenues. Sales tax collections for April were $12.7 million (3.7 percent) below forecast.

Regarding the larger-than-expected corporate tax receipts, state economist Tom Stinson tells PIM there’s no readily apparent reason for the spike. Stinson points out that business tax receipts are volatile, and that April collections are typically low. "Corporate income tax payments are comprised of estimated payments," notes Stinson, "and those come in every quarter, but the big payers are calendar year/fiscal year payers who normally pay in December, March, and June. April is a relatively small month for estimated payments."

As Monday’s release (PDF) indicates, Minnesota’s February, March, and April revenues have fallen a cumulative $70 million below the February forecast. That 1.8 percent shortfall against projections is a tiny bit better than the 2.1 percent, or $46 million, shortfall for February and March [previous item].

But when it comes to gauging the impact of the past year’s severe recession on the state’s general fund, the revenue declines versus forecast are less revealing than the drop in year-over-year collections. Actual receipts for February, March and April 2009 totaled $3.375 billion; during the same three months of 2008, they came to $3.782 billion–a drop of $407 million, or 10.7 percent.

Today the Rockefeller Institute at the State University of New York released year-over-year tax collection figures (PDF) for 47 states during the first quarter of 2009. Minnesota’s 2008 to 2009 decline in receipts for that period was 8.5 percent–lower than the national average of 12.6 percent, but the second-highest in the Midwest after Wisconsin’s 11.9 percent drop.

Today’s Wall Street Journal plots the state revenue declines on a map.