Pawlenty in 2010

[This story was originally published in the March 20, 2009 issue of the PIM Weekly Report.]

We’ve written in the past that seeking a third term is an uphill battle for GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty, no matter how popular he is after all is said and done with respect to solving our budget deficit crisis. In the last 50 years, the only two-term governor who tried was DFL Gov.Rudy Perpich in 1990 and he lost to GOPer Arne Carlson.

Nevertheless, we hear some Pawlenty advisors are making the case for Pawlenty to run. The thinking is that (1) there’s no clear GOP successor to Pawlenty and given his consistently good popularity rankings, he is best-suited to keep the office in GOP hands; (2) if Pawlenty is serious about running for President, he’s a much stronger contender if he’s a sitting governor, particularly since he’s not amassed a national donor or fan base like Mitt Romney or Sarah Palin; and (3) 2010 is an "extraordinary" year for running for governor.

Why extraordinary? Consider this, since Minnesota implemented four-year gubernatorial terms in 1958, there have only been three times when the governor’s race has been at the top of the Minnesota ballot, i.e., there was no presidential or U.S. Senate contest. Here are the years and results.

Look at those voter turn-out numbers. Setting aside 1998’s Jesse Ventura firestorm, a little less than half of eligible voters turned out in the extraordinary years. Figure in a highly motivated GOP base, given the Gov’s office is the best hope for GOP state power (which — pretty safely — assumes that Republicans will not be able to oust 16 DFL Senators or 19 House DFLers to take control of either of those chambers). Adding to the high motivation factor for Republicans will likely be Obama fatigue and U.S. Congressional Democrats’ overreaching. Then assume — as a number of able prognosticators on both of sides of the aisle are — that former DFL U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton becomes the DFL candidate for governor (the assumption here is that, in the end, Dayton’s personal war chest will trump the many other DFL candidates in the field). Finally, make the most tenuous assumption: Democrats were unable to keep "DFL-ish" but formally Independent candidates former DFL U.S. Rep. Tim Penny and nonprofit exec Peter Hutchinson out of the general election in 2002 and 2006, respectively, and they won’t be able to do it again in 2010.

And there you have it. One heck of a solid line of reasoning why Pawlenty could win a third term.