Western ‘burbs a case study in where all the moderate Republicans have gone

Minnesota politicos interested in finding out what’s become of the well-to-do moderates increasingly alienated by the Republican Party’s charge to the right hardly need to resort to conjecture. For several years the answer has been playing itself out before their eyes in the western suburbs of the Twin Cities metro.

The once-reliable haven of rock-ribbed red votes in western Hennepin County has turned a deep shade of purple in the last three election cycles. One centrist DFLer after another has vaulted through the opening created by the GOP’s move to the right on divisive social issues.

With Democrats facing headwinds nationally this year, however, the question of which party will dominate in the half-dozen Senate districts that comprise this oasis of wealth remains very much open.

As the campaign season heats up, Republicans and DFLers are fighting to both win and hold onto seats there. The caliber of the challengers on both sides is a testament to how hard both parties plan to fight on this turf.

DFLers, since 2004, have flipped five seats previously held by Republicans; those chairs are now held by Reps. Maria Ruud, DFL-Minnetonka (2004), Paul Rosenthal, DFL-Edina (2008), John Benson, DFL-Minnetonka (2006), Steve Simon, DFL-St. Louis Park (2004), and Sen. Terri Bonoff, DFL-Minnetonka (2005 special).

Republicans uncharacteristically slid in the region in 2004 after legislators failed to pass a bonding bill and got bogged down over proposals to legislatively preempt any gay marriage shenanigans by the courts. President George W. Bush’s low approval ratings helped Democrats at the top and bottom of the ticket as the decade wore on.

Only a few western GOP strongholds, such as Wayzata and Plymouth, have remained firmly in the GOP column.

But recent election results also underscore the fact that anything can happen. In 2008 Democrat Barack Obama beat GOP nominee John McCain by more than 10 percentage points in the Third Congressional District, but Norm Coleman beat Democrat Al Franken by 8 percent in the U.S. Senate race, and former Republican state legislator Erik Paulsen won a surprisingly easy victory in that year’s Congressional race. (The district also favored Gov. Tim Pawlenty over former DFL Attorney General Mike Hatch by a comfortable margin in the last governor’s race.)

Darin Broton, a DFLer and political analyst, observed that the DFLers who’ve picked up seats in the area have succeeded by toeing a more conservative line in fiscal matters than most of their DFL caucus mates.

“I would argue there are few real competitive races [in the area], mostly because the House DFL has done a good job of finding candidates and making sure their candidates take good votes,” Broton said.

In this year’s legislative session, for example, Benson, Rosenthal and Ruud voted against a deficit reduction bill that included an income tax increase on Minnesota’s wealthiest earners. The votes were prudent in the tax-sensitive western suburbs, Broton said.

Broton’s confidence notwithstanding, there are few if any races in the region that do not appear competitive. In District 41B, Rosenthal faces a strong challenge from Republican Pat Mazorol. Mazorol, of Bloomington, appears to have a good shot at winning back the seat held by Republican Neil Peterson through 2008. Mazorol is president and chief executive officer of Securian Trust Company and serves on the board of directors of Bethel College and the Minnesota Private Colleges Council.

Broton said Mazorol appears to be running on fiscal matters and staying away from divisive social issues, an essential piece of the blueprint for Republican success there. “If you stay away from social issues,” he noted, “you have a chance to win back some voters. The question is, can the candidates be disciplined enough to not go down those paths?”

The rematch of 2008 between Rep. Keith Downey, R-Edina, and DFLer Kevin Staunton in House 41A will be another key race. Unlike last time, Downey and Staunton are running without former GOP Rep. Ron Erhardt on the ballot as an independent.

Aside from partisan politics, the area has been affected by the disruptions in the economy, said State Demographer Tom Gillaspy. Western suburbs like Eden Prairie and Plymouth have seen population growth in the last five years slow compared to the first half of the decade. Metropolitan Council statistics indicate Eden Prairie added 6,000 people from 2000 to 2005. In the later five years, the increase slowed to 1,600 people.

Although Edina has stayed roughly the same in terms of population, the economic stresses in the region, manifested by home foreclosures and retail closings, have left their mark.

“That is going to affect how people think about themselves, their politics, their attitudes,” Gillaspy said.

Trail mix

ASSISTANT HOUSE MAJORITY Leader Erin Murphy, DFL-St. Paul, an emerging force in the House DFL Caucus, is all over the place this summer door-knocking for fellow House DFLers.

Thursday found her in the western suburbs pounding the pavement on behalf of Rep. Maria Ruud. On Tuesday she pounded the streets for Rep. Kory Kath, DFL-Owatonna. In the near future, she’ll head up to District 8B to door knock for Rep. Tim Faust, DFL-Mora.

She has also been active with the so-called Senate District 64 Flying Squad, which is a group of DFL activists that have gone out to other districts to door knock for candidates.

Last weekend she brought the troops from the Flying Squad to the district of Rep. Paul Gardner, DFL-Shoreview. Districts represented by Reps. Julie Bunn, DFL-Lake Elmo, and Mike Obermueller, DFL-Eagan, have also received visits from Murphy and the Flying Squad. She said the Flying Squad plans to door knock in about six other districts.

Coming from most legislators, this level of electioneering would be taken as a sign of caucus leadership ambitions. And maybe that’s so, but most Democrats continue to believe that personal ambitions are a secondary matter in the case of Murphy.

Murphy said door knocking outside of her House district, both on her own and with the Flying Squad, has helped her understand people’s concerns in other parts of the state.

“I’ve always liked door knocking. It’s a way to get a sense of the people that we hope to represent in their thinking,” Murphy said….

THE MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED Builders and Contractors’ PAC is enduring a tough slog toward its fundraising goals, and this week’s housing report – which saw home sales declined by 27 percent nationally, and 42 percent in the Minneapolis/St. Paul metro area – is a tangible reminder of why the going is so hard.

ABC’s public affairs director, Phil Raines, said he expects the PAC will reach its goal of raising $20,000 for the election cycle for state races and $30,000 for federal races.

“You still get checks,” Raines said, “but the number of checks is down and the amount of money is smaller than in previous years.”

To date, the builder’s PAC has endorsed Mike LeMieur, who is challenging Rep. Al Doty, DFL-Royalton, and John Pederson, the Republican who is running for the open seat being vacated by Sen. Tarryl Clark, DFL-St. Cloud.

Raines said the PAC’s board, which announced its support on Wednesday for GOP gubernatorial nominee Tom Emmer, will meet soon to make more legislative endorsements.