Poll says national political trends bode well for state House DFLers

A Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs/Minnesota Public Radio poll over the weekend found that state Democrats have increased their edge over Republicans as they try to expand their majority in the state House of Representatives in Tuesday’s election.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters in Minnesota told the survey they prefer Democratic candidates in state legislative races. Thirty-three percent surveyed said they prefer Republicans.

The 16-point lead for DFLers is a “slight increase” from their 11-point lead on Oct. 4, according to the poll’s findings.

The poll doesn’t predict how particular districts will be decided. But Lawrence Jacobs, director of the Humphrey’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, said the results indicate that broad, unrelated events like President Bush’s approval ratings and the economic downturn are hurting Republicans’ chances in down-ballot contests.

“There is a nationalizing of the election for Minnesota legislative races,” Jacobs said.

The survey was conducted of 451 likely voters between Oct. 24 and Oct. 28. The margin-of-error is 4.6 percentage points.

The strong sentiment in favor of Democrats in Minnesota this election cycle is particularly notable, Jacobs said, because in 2006 DFLers won several races by very small margins. In that election, 7,000 votes determined the outcome of 17 close races won by DFLers.

In this election, DFLers are trying to hold onto their current 85 seats and pick up another five seats to win a veto-proof majority. House Republicans have 49 seats.

“I would say this would be the kind of general reading that Democrats would need to pick up that kind of super majority. The Democrats are going to need a wave of support to hold their current seats and pick up the five. That is a daunting task.  But this suggests that the environment is ripe for that potential,” Jacobs said.

House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, R-Marshall, said that the statewide nature of the poll doesn’t detect the feeling that voters in individual legislative districts have about the races.

“The House is unique in that it is 134 races and not a statewide referendum,” Seifert said.

He noted that suburban races that were decided by narrow margins in favor of DFLers in 2006 could go either way this year. He also highlighted two rematches in southeastern Minnesota that he said are close: DFL incumbent Ken Tschumper of La Crescent versus former GOP Rep. Greg Davids of Preston and DFL incumbent Andy Welti of Plainview versus former Rep. Bill Kuisle of Rochester. But the “bellwether” for Seifert will be the race between Rep. Sandy Wollschlager, DFL-Cannon Falls, and Red Wing School Board member Tim Kelly.

Siefert acknowledged it’s a tough election cycle for Republicans. But he said he thinks his caucus can hold its own on Tuesday.

“If we end up either breaking even or doing better it will be seen as a moral victory for us,” Seifert said.

The poll is online at www.hhh.umn.edu/centers/cspg/index.php.