Top Ten House Districts to Watch: Part I

As the PIM team built our 2008 legislative campaign pages, we couldn't help but start to seriously consider how the races might shake out.

This last biennium, Democrats held a daunting 36-vote margin in the House, 85 Democrats to 49 Republicans. After this year's high profile transportation funding veto override (all 85 House Democrats plus six Republicans voted to override), the DFL House caucus has not been shy about letting everyone know the group wants DFL-proof veto-override powers. The magic number for the constitutionally required veto override vote is 90, two-thirds of the 134 House seats, which is only five more seats. House Democrats think they can pick up those seats this year, because of prevailing anti-GOP winds and the fact that in presidential years, Democrats do a terrific job of turning out the vote.

But Ben Golnik, political consultant to the House Republican Campaign Committee, vehemently disagrees. He is confident this season will bring gains for the GOP (perhaps even double-digit gains), citing vulnerable DFL freshman as prize GOP targets. A 19-seat gain would bring back the majority, and while it sounds unlikely, one need only look back to 2006 when the DFL gained 19 seats to steal the majority away. It can be done, says Golnik.

Ten seats which will receive considerable attention this year are the same House District races that were close in 2006. The tightest races were upsets of 8-termers Rep. Phil Krinkie (R-Shoreview) and Rep. Greg Davids (R-Preston), whose races were ultimately decided by 26 voters. Krinkie, now President of the Taxpayers League of Minnesota, did not pursue endorsement at the caucus earlier this year. In fact, a primary is expected between endorsed candidate John Kappler [campaign site] and former two-term Senator Mady Reiter [campaign site] (R-Shoreview). Reiter lost to Sen. Sandy Rummel (DFL-White Bear Lake) in 2006 by 2,265 votes, however in the 53A side of her district Reiter only lost by 179 votes.

Davids is gearing up for a rematch with freshman Rep. Ken Tschumper [campaign site] (DFL-La Crescent). Mid-week, Tschumper still had not updated his website from 2006, but one assumes his message of, "We are not going to solve our problems if we keep re-electing the people already in office," will likely be tweaked a bit. [The fact that Davids doesn't have a website prompts the question: Which is worse? A website that is outdated, or no website at all?]

In 38A, Freshman Rep. Sandra Masin [campaign site] (DFL-Eagan) will be holding her ground against endorsed GOP candidate Diane Anderson [campaign site]. Masin ran against then-GOP incumbent Tim Wilkin in 1998 and lost by 2,176 votes. But every year since, Wilkin's DFL opponent closed the gap. Wilkin garnered 54.3% of the vote against Tom Weisbecker in 2000, 53.8% against DFL-endorsed Meg Tilley and Independence Party candidate Art Seaberg in 2002 and 52.4% against Christine Harbron in 2004.

This year will be the first time since 2000 that voters in district 25B will not see a Bly vs. Cox ticket. Rep. David Bly (DFL-Northfield), after two unsuccessful attempts, finally took out Rep. Ray Cox (R-Northfield). In 2002 Cox won by 46 votes, and in 2004 he won by a much more comfortable spread of 586 votes. Cox ran unsuccessfully against Sen. Kevin Dahle (DFL-Northfield) in a January 2008 special election for the seat left vacant when Sen. Neuville (R-Northfield) was appointed to the Rice County bench. Cox's website says he has, "grown weary of the spirit of politics that has developed in Northfield," and thus chose not to run for the House seat this year. Data from the special election likely influenced his decision as well: while he lost to Dahle by a total of 1,577 votes, he lost in HD 25B by 1,606 votes.

In 29B, Rep. Kim Norton [campaign site] (DFL-Rochester) will be defending her seat against Jason Johnson [campaign site]. As the chart shows, pro-DFL interests spent over four times as much as Norton's campaign itself spent, with the GOP interests not far behind. In 2004, Norton trailed Rep. Fran Bradley (R-Rochester) by only 311 votes. When Bradley retired in 2006 after 12 years of service, Norton squeaked ahead of Rich Decker to earn a seat in the 2007-08 Legislature. Johnson is a Ron Paulite and his recent post on a Ron Paul web forum detailing his need for funds can be found here. His campaign website shares that his August wedding will now be postponed - not due to the campaign, but to his wife-to-be's need for a kidney transplant.

We'll have more on the top House races after the Fourth of July holiday, but meanwhile, check out the table here detailing 2006's closest House races (PDF, victors are underlined, "Inc." stands for Incumbent).

 [Thanks to PIM's Pam Steinle for the hours she put in researching the races.]